git clone https://github.com/natalienkhalil/paper-stats.gitUpdated 8a8f954
main. Every published version is archived. natalienkhalil/paper-stats@8a8f954#global-article-output-growth-2000-2025
VerifiedGlobal scientific publication output experienced an exponential increase between 2000 and 2025.
Total DOI-indexed articles rose from 1,508,675 in 2000 to 7,233,887 in 2025, representing a 4.8-fold increase (+379.5% cumulative growth) with a fitted exponential rate of 6.4% per year.
natalienkhalil/paper-stats@8a8f954#openalex-validation-hanson-et-al
VerifiedUsing OpenAlex, researchers found 48.1% cumulative growth (from 3.85M to 5.70M articles) and a fitted exponential rate of 6.9%/yr from 2016 to 2022, aligning closely with Hanson et al.'s prior Scopus-based finding of 47% cumulative growth.
natalienkhalil/paper-stats@8a8f954#acceleration-publication-growth-post-2022
UnverifiedThe year-over-year growth rate of scientific publication volume has accelerated since 2022.
The mean year-over-year growth rate rose from 6.8% (2016–2022) to 8.3% (2022–2025), with 2025 reaching +11.9%, the highest single-year growth rate in the DOI-indexed record since 2002.
natalienkhalil/paper-stats@8a8f954#domain-growth-rates-and-absolute-additions
UnverifiedSocial Sciences grew by +139.3% (from 839K to 2.01M articles), whereas Physical Sciences added 1,363,414 articles (growing by +96.4% from 1.41M to 2.78M).
natalienkhalil/paper-stats@8a8f954#fastest-growing-national-publishing-systems
UnverifiedCountries with a minimum of 10K articles in 2015 showing the highest growth rates include Indonesia (+1246%), Pakistan (+433%), Saudi Arabia (+295%), Nigeria (+258%), and China (+221%).
Data were retrieved from the OpenAlex API restricting results to article types with DOIs (`type:article, has_doi:true`), assigning countries via institutional affiliations using whole counting, and computing growth metrics such as YoY growth, cumulative growth, and log-linear OLS exponential trends.
Data were retrieved from the [OpenAlex API](https://api.openalex.org) (Priem et al., 2022) in March 2026. See `src/fetch_openalex.py` for the full query logic and the CSVs in `data/`. Results are restricted to `type:article, has_doi:true`.
README.md
Growth metrics are computed as follows: - **Year-over-year (YoY) growth rate**: (C_t − C_{t−1}) / C_{t−1} × 100, where C_t is the article count in year t - **Cumulative growth**: (C_end − C_start) / C_start × 100 over a given window - **Mean YoY rate**: arithmetic mean of annual YoY rates over the window - **Country share**: country article count / total global articles × 100 for each year - **Exponential trend** (Figure 1): log-linear OLS fit, ln(C) = a + b·t, where b represents the fitted annual growth rate
README.md
