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Initial commit: open replication and extension of Hanson et al. (2024) Analysis of global scientific publication growth using OpenAlex, with data, figures, and reproducible pipeline. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Pushed 27 Oct 2026, 01:22

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Review completed. Read each claim’s result and explanation below.

Methods · 1

Methods are searchable but are not assigned verification statuses.

Global publication output and growth trends are analyzed using the open-access OpenAlex database.

Data were retrieved from the OpenAlex API restricting results to article types with DOIs (`type:article, has_doi:true`), assigning countries via institutional affiliations using whole counting, and computing growth metrics such as YoY growth, cumulative growth, and log-linear OLS exponential trends.

Source excerpts

Data were retrieved from the [OpenAlex API](https://api.openalex.org) (Priem et al., 2022) in March 2026. See `src/fetch_openalex.py` for the full query logic and the CSVs in `data/`. Results are restricted to `type:article, has_doi:true`.

README.md

Growth metrics are computed as follows: - **Year-over-year (YoY) growth rate**: (C_t − C_{t−1}) / C_{t−1} × 100, where C_t is the article count in year t - **Cumulative growth**: (C_end − C_start) / C_start × 100 over a given window - **Mean YoY rate**: arithmetic mean of annual YoY rates over the window - **Country share**: country article count / total global articles × 100 for each year - **Exponential trend** (Figure 1): log-linear OLS fit, ln(C) = a + b·t, where b represents the fitted annual growth rate

README.md

Claims · 6

Total DOI-indexed articles rose from 1,508,675 in 2000 to 7,233,887 in 2025, representing a 4.8-fold increase and +379.5% cumulative growth, with a fitted exponential rate of 6.4%/yr.

  • Data retrieved directly from OpenAlex provides the exact annual article counts from 2000 to 2025, matching the figures cited in the claim.
  • The claims are properly scoped to DOI-indexed articles retrieved globally from OpenAlex between 2000 and 2025.
  • The research design retrieves data through programmatic API queries covering the explicit time period 2000 through 2025 using a reproducible pipeline.

Using OpenAlex data over the 2016–2022 window for DOI-indexed articles, cumulative growth was 48.1% (from 3.85M to 5.70M articles) with a fitted exponential rate of 6.9%/yr, comparable to Hanson et al.'s reported 47% cumulative growth using Scopus filtered to WoS-indexed journals.

  • The OpenAlex dataset provides complete counts over the 2016-2022 window, moving from 3.85M articles in 2016 to 5.70M in 2022.
  • The claim appropriately restricts its scope to DOI-indexed articles from OpenAlex over the 2016-2022 window, explicitly acknowledging that absolute corpus sizes differ from Scopus/WoS.
  • The study uses the exact same window (2016-2022) as Hanson et al. (2024), applying parallel bibliometric constraints (DOI-indexed articles) to enable comparison against Scopus/WoS data.

Comparing the 2016–2022 window (mean YoY 6.78%) to the 2022–2025 window, DOI-indexed articles saw +26.9% cumulative growth and a higher mean YoY rate of 8.29%, with 2025 reaching +11.9%.

  • Evidence extraction did not cite its sources.

Between 2015 and 2025 across OpenAlex domains for DOI-indexed articles, Physical Sciences added the most articles (+1,363,414, growing from 1.41M to 2.78M, +96.4%), while Social Sciences grew at the fastest rate (+139.3%, from 839K to 2.01M).

  • Evidence extraction did not cite its sources.

In 2022, China overtook the US in number of articles (891,175 vs 794,008) and global share (15.6% vs 13.9%), and in 2025 produced 1.24x as many articles (1,177,692 vs 947,239), with China's global share rising from 1.8% in 2000 to 16.3% in 2025, and the US falling from 22.3% to 13.1%.

  • The data extracted from OpenAlex provides specific article counts for China and the US across the years 2000, 2022, and 2025, matching the numerical values cited in the claim.
  • The claims are properly scoped to DOI-indexed articles within the OpenAlex database over the specified 2000–2025 period.
  • The observational bibliometric design is appropriate for tracking historical publication counts and metadata trends from the OpenAlex database.

Among countries with a minimum of 10K articles in 2015, the fastest growing systems between 2015 and 2025 were Indonesia (+1246%), Pakistan (+433%), Saudi Arabia (+295%), Nigeria (+258%), China (+221%), Ukraine (+196%), Thailand (+187%), Hong Kong (+178%), India (+174%), and Turkey (+164%).

  • The automated review could not be completed reliably. This does not establish that the claim is unsupported.